MIBRA-USP, an interregional applied general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy

On the external side Brazil has experienced since the beginning of the 1990’s an opening process of its economy in a world environment were there have been a wide process of block formation (European Union, Nafta, Mercosur, etc.), on the internal side the Brazilian Real Plan in 1994 has started a period of relative stabilization in the economy that after more than two decades of high inflation has finally brought it under control. The above factors seem to have contributed to structural changes in Brazilian economy. These structural changes were not equally distributed among the sectors and the regions in the Brazilian economy. As an instrument that can be used to evaluate the impact of the economic policies over the regional development in the Brazilian economy, this work presents an interregional Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model, MIBRA-USP, constructed for the 16 most important sectors in the economy as well as for the 5 Brazilian macro-regions (North, Northeast, Central West, Southeast, and South), calibrated for the year of 1995. This model follows in the tradition of the MONASH-MRF (Multiregional Multisectoral Model of Australian Economy) constructed for the Australian economy and as such the model is solved using the GEMPACK software and their solutions are giving in growth rates. This model is a development over two other previous AGE models, in the Australian tradition, constructed for the Brazilian economy: a) the PAPA model (Guilhoto, 1995) that is a national model with a data base in 1980; and b) the B-MARIA model (Haddad, 1998), an interregional model consisting of 3 regions (North, Northeast, and Rest of the Economy) and calibrated for 1985. The simulations conducted with the MIBRA-USP model were chosen in a way to study how the regions and sectors in the Brazilian economy would react to different sets of economic policies

Exchange rate versus tariff policies in Brazil: results from MIBRA-USP, an interrregional applied general equilibrium model of the Brazilian economy

Since the beginning of the 1990’s Brazil has been experienced an opening process in the economy, which in turn has caused structural changes in the productive structure. In this work it is made an evaluation of the different impacts caused by changes in the exchange rate and in the tariffs over the Brazilian economy and its 5 macro regions. The study is done through the use of an interregional applied general equilibrium model, the MIBRA-USP. The results show that either a devaluation of the exchange rate or an increase in tariffs can cause a rise in the employment level as well as in the economic activity. However, there are differences between the policies, among which it is called attention for the real consumption of the families that decreases with the exchange rate devaluation and increases with higher tariffs

Exchange rate versus tariff policies in Brazil: results from MIBRA-USP, an interrregional applied general equilibrium model of the Brazilian economy

Since the beginning of the 1990’s Brazil has been experienced an opening process in the economy, which in turn has caused structural changes in the productive structure. In this work it is made an evaluation of the different impacts caused by changes in the exchange rate and in the tariffs over the Brazilian economy and its 5 macro regions. The study is done through the use of an interregional applied general equilibrium model, the MIBRA-USP. The results show that either a devaluation of the exchange rate or an increase in tariffs can cause a rise in the employment level as well as in the economic activity. However, there are differences between the policies, among which it is called attention for the real consumption of the families that decreases with the exchange rate devaluation and increases with higher tariffs

Global warming and the carbon market: an application of the cert model.

As ações decorrentes das atividades econômicas e industriais têm provocado alterações na biosfera, resultando na quase duplicação da concentração de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE) na atmosfera durante o período de 1750 a 1998. A alteração da concentração dos GEE poderá desencadear um aumento da temperatura média no planeta entre 1,4 e 5,8°C nos próximos cem anos (IPCC, 2001a). Para tratar do problema do efeito estufa e suas possíveis conseqüências sobre a humanidade foi estabelecida em 1992, durante a Rio 92, a Convenção Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudanças Climáticas. A Conferência das Partes realizada em Quioto em 1997 destaca-se como uma das mais importantes, uma vez que durante sua realização foi estabelecido um acordo onde se encontram definidas metas de redução da emissão de GEE para os países do ANEXO B (países do ANEXO I com compromissos de redução das emissões de GEE), além de critérios e diretrizes para a utilização dos mecanismos de mercado. Este acordo ficou conhecido como Protocolo de Quioto e estabelece que os países industrializados devem reduzir suas emissões em 5,2% abaixo dos níveis observados em 1990 entre 2008-2012 (primeiro período de compromisso). O Protocolo criou o Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL). A idéia do MDL consiste em que cada tonelada de CO2 deixada de ser emitida, ou retirada da atmosfera por um país em desenvolvimento, poderá ser negociada no mercado mundial através de Certificados de Emissões Reduzidas (CER). Esta tese teve como objetivo geral caracterizar o "mercado de carbono", em especial a participação do Brasil através do MDL. Para tanto foi feita uma análise de como este mercado está sendo formado e como deverá ser sua evolução até a possível formação de mercados futuros. Os objetivos específicos foram: 1) Determinar o tamanho do mercado global e a participação do Brasil (através do MDL) em diversos cenários; e, 2) Analisar se os CER gerados em projetos de MDL, em especial por projetos de seqüestro de carbono, poderiam se tornar uma "commodity ambiental" ou não. Ficou claro que o mercado de carbono já é uma realidade, porém encontra-se em um estágio inicial de sua formação. Para estimar o tamanho do mercado utilizou-se o Modelo CERT (Carbon Emission Reduction Trade). Nos cenários de referência do Modelo a maior participação brasileira no mercado de CER foi de apenas 3,4% (Cenário 7), através da venda de 14,4 milhões de toneladas de carbono, gerando um receita de US$237 milhões ao custo de US$ 106,3 milhões. O lucro de todos os projetos de MDL no Brasil foi de US$130,7 milhões. Nos cenários alternativos a maior participação foi de 17,8$ 525,6 milhões ao custo de US$198 milhões. O lucro de todos os projetos de MDL no Brasil neste caso foi de US$ 327,6 milhões.The economic and industrial anthropogenic activities are increasing the Green House Gas (GHG) atmospheric concentration. These gases can increase the atmosphere temperature in 1.4 to 5.8°C in the next hundred years (IPCC, 2001a). To solve this problem was created in 1992 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Conference of the Parties held at Kyoto in 1997 was one of the most important, since it created an international agreement about the GHG emission reductions to the ANNEX B countries. This agreement is called the Kyoto Protocol and it determine that the industrialized countries should decrease the GHG emissions in 5,2% below the 1990 levels between 2008-2012 (first period commitment). The Protocol also created the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The idea of the CDM is that each tone of CO2 that is reduced or sequestered from the atmosphere by a developing country can be negotiated through Certified Emission Reduction (CER).This thesis had the main objective of understand the "carbon market", in special the Brazilian participation through the CDM. The specific objectives was: 1) Determine the size of the global market and the Brazilian participation (through the CDM) in different scenarios; and, 2) To analyze if the CER created by forest projects can be a environmental commodity. It was clear that the carbon market exists but is in an initial phase. To estimate the size of the market the CERT (Carbon Emission Reduction Trade) Model was used. In the reference scenarios the best Brazilian participation, through the CER, was only 3.4% (Scenario 7), selling 14.4 millions tons of carbon, with a revenue of US$237 millions and costs of US$ 106.3 millions. The profits of all CDM projects in Brazil was US$130,7 millions. In the alternative scenarios the best Brazilian participation was 17.8$ 525.6 millions and costs of US$198 millions. In this case the profits of all CDM projects in Brazil was US$ 327.6 millions

not available

Com o desenvolvimento e crescimento do país, espera-se um crescimento dos serviços de esgotamento sanitário atingindo uma maior parcela da população. Somente na região das bacias dos rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí, espera-se que em 2020, 5,6 milhões de habitantes sejam atendidos pelos sistemas de esgotamento. A carga total coletada será de aproximadamente 304 t DBO/diia que, se submetida a tratamento com eficiência média de 90%, será reduzida para o valor de 30 t DBO/dia. Em termos de volume, estima-se que no ano 2020, serão tratados cerca de 17.284 lls de esgoto. A disposição adequada do lodo de esgoto é fundamental, a fim de se evitar potenciais prejuízos ambientais. Entre as diversas alternativas para a disposição adequada do lodo de esgoto estão: aplicação em áreas degradadas, disposição em aterros sanitários, incineração, disposição no mar, aplicação na agricultura e aplicação em florestas. Todas estas alternativas possuem vantagens e desvantagens potenciais. O presente estudo mostra quais são algumas destas vantagens e desvantagens. Atualmente, existe uma tendência mundial em se priorizar as alternativas que promovam a reciclagem do lodo, tais como a aplicação em áreas degradadas, agricultura e florestas. Tomando como exemplo a cidade de Limeira, determinou-se o custo privado da aplicação agrícola do lodo de esgoto. Baseando-se em um modelo de aplicação agrícola norte-americano, o custo total de capital para a disposição de 2.744 toneladas de sólidos secos por ano será de R$454.973,68, enquanto que o custo de manutenção e operação será de R$ 70.575,15 por ano. Além dos custos privados, é fundamental para a determinação da escolha da melhor alternativa de disposição do lodo de esgoto, o levantamento dos custos sociais. Para tanto, o presente estudo apresenta algumas metodologias/ferramentas que poderão ser utilizadas em futuros estudos. Independente da alternativa escolhida para a disposição final do lodo de esgoto existe a necessidade de regulamentação, ou seja, a necessidade de impor normas e leis a fim de que determinados padrões e diretrizes sejam seguidos. No caso específico da disposição final do LE, diversos países elaboraram padrões e diretrizes de acordo com suas características culturais e de acordo com as características físico-químicas do LE. O presente estudo avalia a legislação norte-americana ("503"), mostrando quais são os seus principais pontos. A legislação brasileira que pode ser aplicada para a disposição final do LE, também é apresentada.not availabl

Neurodynamics of an election

Variables influencing decision-making in real settings, as in the case of voting decisions, are uncontrollable and in many times even unknown to the experimenter. In this case, the experimenter has to study the intention to decide (vote) as close as possible in time to the moment of the real decision (election day). Here, we investigated the brain activity associated with the voting intention declared 1 week before the election day of the Brazilian Firearms Control Referendum about prohibiting the commerce of firearms. Two alliances arose in the Congress to run the campaigns for YES (for the prohibition of firearm commerce) and NO (against the prohibition of firearm commerce) voting. Time constraints imposed by the necessity of studying a reasonable number (here, 32) of voters during a very short time (5 days) made the EEG the tool of choice for recording the brain activity associated with voting decision. Recent fMRI and EEG studies have shown decision-making as a process due to the enrollment of defined neuronal networks. In this work, a special EEG technique is applied to study the topology of the voting decision-making networks and is compared to the results of standard ERP procedures. The results show that voting decision-making enrolled networks in charge of calculating the benefits and risks of the decision of prohibiting or allowing firearm commerce and that the topology of such networks was vote-(i.e., YES/NO-) sensitive. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A NEUROECONOMIC MODELING OF ATTENTION-DEFICIT/HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER (ADHD)

In this paper we present a new neuroeconomics model for decision-making applied to the Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The model is based on the hypothesis that decision-making is dependent on the evaluation of expected rewards and risks assessed simultaneously in two decision spaces: the personal (PDS) and the interpersonal emotional spaces (IDS). Motivation to act is triggered by necessities identified in PDS or IDS. The adequacy of an action in fulfilling a given necessity is assumed to be dependent on the expected reward and risk evaluated in the decision spaces. Conflict generated by expected reward and risk influences the easiness (cognitive effort) and the future perspective of the decision-making. Finally, the willingness (not) to act is proposed to be a function of the expected reward (or risk), adequacy, easiness and future perspective. The two most frequent clinical forms are ADHD hyperactive (AD/HDhyp) and ADHD inattentive (AD/HDdin). AD/HDhyp behavior is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for short periods of time, low risk evaluation, and short future perspective for decision-making. AD/HDin is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for long periods of time, low risk evaluation, and long future perspective for decision-making.CNPqFAPESP[04/00743-4